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An MIT professor's free lecture teaches a simple three-step math framework for commit-or-fold decisions—used by Wall Street prop traders but rarely applied by the millions who've watched it. The same equation works for poker, job changes, marriages, and any binary decision, yet most people never bother running the numbers.
- The shove-or-fold math (fold equity + showdown equity, weighted by payoffs) is publicly available on MIT OpenCourseWare and applies to any all-in decision, not just poker
- Wall Street prop trading desks pay $250k annually for graduates who can execute this calculation faster than markets move, yet retail traders typically hedge between half-decisions instead
- The gap between knowing the framework and actually using it before major life decisions is where the real edge lies—the math itself isn't the competitive advantage